Essence
In 2024, potato supplies from China to Russia increased 5-fold, reaching 46.7 thousand tons. This is 37.4 thousand tons more than in 2023. This is reported by the expert and analytical center of agribusiness "AB-Center" with reference to data from the General Administration of Customs of the PRC.
The main reasons for the growth are the decline in prices for Chinese potatoes and the reduction in production in Russia.
Context
- According to Rosstat, in 2024, gross potato harvests in Russia fell by 14.5 percent (to 7.3 million tons) due to unfavorable weather conditions, a reduction in area (by 9.7 percent year-on-year) and yield (271.2 c/ha versus 290.0 c/ha in 2023).
- The Far Eastern and Siberian Federal Districts remain dependent on imports. In the 2023/2024 agricultural year, potato production in the Far Eastern Federal District amounted to 215.2 thousand tons with consumption of 476.7 thousand tons, in the Siberian Federal District - 738.8 thousand tons with consumption of 1,004.1 thousand tons (data from Rosstat and AB-Center).
- Price dynamics: The average cost of Chinese potatoes in 2024 is RUB 33,397/t (minus 15.3 percent year-on-year). At the same time, prices for Russian potatoes in the Siberian Federal District increased by 89.3 percent over the year, in the Far Eastern Federal District - by 28.5 percent.
- To stabilize the market, the Ministry of Agriculture introduced tariff benefits on the import of potatoes (up to 150 thousand tons), carrots and apples.
- In 2024, the cost of growing potatoes in Russia increased by 17%, reaching 1 thousand rubles per centner. This was previously reported by the Deputy Director of the Department of Plant Growing, Mechanization, Chemicalization and Plant Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, Evgeny Andreyanov. This is due to an increase in the cost of fuel, fertilizers and logistics.
- At the same time, the profitability of potato production increased from 12.8 percent to 26.8 percent due to the increase in selling prices.
- The Ministry of Agriculture plans to increase the potato harvest in Russia to 8.6 million tons by 2030. This should be accompanied by the development of exports and processing.
Conclusions
The growth in imports of Chinese potatoes is due to its price competitiveness and shortages in a number of regions.
According to AB-Center, deliveries may continue to grow in the first half of 2025.
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